Historical player comparison: inspect each included game and cutoff before comparing season totals. Hunter’s receiving and defensive contributions are separate; this page does not establish a cross-position winner.
Revisit the season. Test the benchmark.
Explore national passing, rushing and receiving production, then examine Travis Hunter’s receiving and Ashton Jeanty’s rushing in their own categories. These comparisons do not produce a cross-position winner or a talent grade.
Choose the evidence period
December 14, 2024 at 00:00 UTC is this project’s pre-award cutoff. It is not a verified actual voting deadline. The extension includes games before February 1, 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
These are postgame comparisons at observed workload. Expected yards use the actual attempts, carries or receptions in each recorded game. Empirical ranges use earlier residuals and that same workload; they are not pregame yardage forecasts or award probabilities. Historical source publication times are unverified.
Two players, different contributions
Receiving and rushing use different opportunity denominators. Each expected value starts from that player’s shrunk prior history and accounts for opponents, given actual workload; it is not replacement-player value. A negative residual means production fell below that adjusted earlier pace, not that the player lacks talent or overall value. The case cards keep each category separate. Hunter’s defensive value, coverage snaps, routes and two-way workload are not rated by this model.
National category comparisons
2024 roster positions are unavailable. These tables rank statistical categories, not verified QB, RB, WR or TE roles. Receiving opportunities are receptions, not targets. Qualification requires at least three paired games and 100 passing attempts, 40 carries or 15 receptions in that paired sample.
Observed usable-row totals include clean positive-workload source rows. Paired actuals, both expectations and residuals use the same known-opponent comparison rows. Excluded or zero-workload observations are outside these totals. The own-prior baseline shrinks earlier player rates toward the league rate; the adjusted model also accounts for earlier opponents and the current opposing unit.
National game arrays are retained in the reproducible calculation audit. This page mounts game details for the three case studies only.
Does the adjustment improve the model?
The three category reports below use the selected period’s full eligible held-out cohort, including observed FCS offenses. Player search, team and subdivision filters do not change them. Lower error is better; every model is compared on the same paired rows.
Sources and limitations
The historical raw-stat page provides separately sourced Hunter defensive statistics. Defensive value, verified snaps, routes and two-way impact remain unavailable here.