{ "config": { "composite_weights": null, "direct_sos_required": true, "missing_components": "null score; no per-team weight redistribution", "moneyball": "OLS(current Resume ~ log(estimated payroll millions)); 60% signed-residual percentile +25% Resume +15% Power", "moneyball_cap": 0.05, "power": { "formula": "m=tanh(final_margin/21); minimize sum((r_home-r_away-m)^2)+4*sum(r^2)", "margin_scale": 21.0, "model": "existing ridge opponent-adjusted bounded final margin", "ridge": 4.0 }, "power_and_sos_score_transform": "50+50*tanh(raw_rating); fixed monotone index, not a probability", "rank_tie_precision_decimal_places": 8, "resume": { "formula": "C_ii=n+2; C_ij=-games_ij; b_i=1+(wins-losses)/2; solve C*r=b; displayed score=50+50*tanh(2*r-1)", "model": "Colley outcome-only", "neutral_prior_results": 2, "raw_colley_score_equation_terms": "Prior and game terms sum to raw 100*r, not to the nonlinear displayed index" }, "sos": "mean opponent Power raw rating across eligible completed games" }, "coverage": { "eligible_games": 1213, "fbs_teams": 138, "full_fcs_schedule_verified": false, "moneyball_ranked_in_financial_cohort": 69, "power_ranked": 138, "represented_teams": 266, "resume_ranked": 138, "sos_ranked": 138 }, "cutoff_utc": "2026-11-08T11:55:56.081366Z", "financial_coverage": { "fbs_teams": 138, "known_estimates": 69, "missing_estimates": 69 }, "financial_source": { "bytes": 19395, "claimed_snapshot_date": "2026-10-29", "date_evidence": "data/recovery/originals/19-APEX_Project_Recovery_2026-11-04.md", "description": "Recovered NIL/roster-spending estimates, not audited contracts or total program resources", "fresh_financial_capture": false, "independently_verified": false, "path": "data/recovery/exports/13-SOSv2_138_Model_Inputs.csv", "season": 2026, "sha256": "766a668875ee473433859ee7e2a1c340abda54dd855016ab49dd7c4dc049ed18", "snapshot_date_verified": false, "source_time_verified": false, "source_url_claimed": "https://thenilstandard.com/football/teams", "unit": "USD_millions" }, "limitations": [ "These are new experimental current calculations, not updated external proxy ranks or final approved APEX policy.", "There is no official composite by default. Example scenarios and explicitly supplied weights are experimental.", "Final-state source capture is a current knowledge bound, not verified historical pregame availability.", "All eligible results through the cutoff enter retrospective opponent quality, including the evaluated game.", "Colley Resume uses outcomes and schedule only; it has no margin, game control, injury or venue adjustments.", "Raw Colley ratings are not bounded probabilities. The displayed Resume index is 50+50*tanh(2*r-1); raw equation contributions reconstruct 100*r, not the displayed index.", "Power reuses the existing diminishing-final-margin model; its historical winner diagnostic does not validate playoff ordering or current lineup strength.", "Fixed bounded Power/SOS indices preserve strength order but are not probabilities, point spreads or a validated composite scale.", "FCS schedules and cross-division observations are incomplete. Common shrinkage priors do not establish conference or subdivision comparability.", "Moneyball refits a current performance target to older estimated resources within a partial financial cohort; no national Moneyball rank is assigned.", "The inherited experimental Moneyball blend repeats Resume and Power contributions. Effective explicit scenario weights are reported; residual target dependence remains.", "Direct SOS overlaps opponent quality already embedded in Resume and Power. No ablation establishes the proposed composite shares.", "Missing financial estimates or advanced context are unknown, not zero. No calibrated uncertainty intervals or fabricated advanced measurements are supplied.", "No model is claimed validated merely because calculation and tests succeed.", "Recovered source integrity is verified; financial values and claimed October 29 date are not independently verified.", "Refreshing football results does not refresh or verify these financial estimates.", "Missing estimates remain unavailable, never zero spending or an efficiency bonus.", "The financial cohort is selected and incomplete; ranks within it are not a full national resource-efficiency ranking.", "NIL/roster-spending estimates do not measure complete coaching, recruiting, facilities, retention or program resources.", "No audited payroll contracts, financial uncertainty distribution or causal spending effect is established." ], "moneyball_fit": { "cohort_size": 69, "cohort_team_ids": [ "cfbfastr:team:103", "cfbfastr:team:12", "cfbfastr:team:120", "cfbfastr:team:127", "cfbfastr:team:130", "cfbfastr:team:135", 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